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marketplace/docs/growth-projections.md
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-02-22 16:19:33 -08:00

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Growth Projection Template

Key Formulas

Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR)

MRR = (N_pro × $9.99) + (N_business × $29.99) + Monthly Commission Revenue

Monthly Commission Revenue = Sum of all booking commissions in month

Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR)

ARR = MRR × 12

Customer Lifetime Value (LTV)

LTV = ARPL × Average Customer Lifetime (months)

ARPL = (Subscription Revenue + Commission Revenue) / Total Active Landlords

Average Customer Lifetime = 1 / Monthly Churn Rate

Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)

CAC = Total Marketing Spend / New Landlords Acquired

LTV:CAC Ratio target: > 3:1

Average Booking Value (ABV)

ABV = Total Booking GMV / Number of Bookings

Projection Model

Assumptions

Metric Month 1 Month 6 Month 12
Total Landlords 50 300 1,000
BASIC (%) 80% 60% 50%
PRO (%) 15% 25% 30%
BUSINESS (%) 5% 15% 20%
Avg Bookings/Landlord/mo 2 3 4
Avg Booking Value $300 $350 $400
Monthly Churn 10% 7% 5%

Revenue Projections

Revenue Stream Month 1 Month 6 Month 12
Subscriptions
PRO (N × $9.99) $74.93 $749.25 $2,997.00
BUSINESS (N × $29.99) $74.98 $1,349.55 $5,998.00
Rental Commissions
BASIC (10%) $2,400 $18,900 $80,000
PRO (7%) $315 $3,675 $33,600
BUSINESS (5%) $75 $1,575 $16,000
Total Monthly Revenue $2,939.91 $26,248.80 $138,595.00

Growth Metrics

Month-over-Month Growth = (MRR_current - MRR_previous) / MRR_previous × 100

Net Revenue Retention = (MRR from existing customers at end) / (MRR from same customers at start) × 100

Gross Margin = (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue × 100
  COGS = Stripe fees + Hosting + Support
  Target Gross Margin: > 70%

Scenario Planning

Conservative

  • 30% MoM landlord growth
  • 60% stay on BASIC
  • ABV: $250

Base

  • 50% MoM landlord growth
  • 50% upgrade to PRO/BUSINESS within 6 months
  • ABV: $350

Aggressive

  • 80% MoM landlord growth
  • 60% upgrade to PRO/BUSINESS within 3 months
  • ABV: $500