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marketplace/docs/growth-projections.md
delta-lynx-89e8 dcd2dcb841 feat: subscription tiers, period filter, dashboards, docs
- Add subscription tiers (Basic/Pro/Business) with listing limits and dynamic commission
- Add daily/monthly period filter on rentals page
- Add landlord dashboard with earnings chart, stat cards, property performance
- Add landlord subscription management page
- Add tenant dashboard with upcoming stays
- Add business model documentation

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-02-22 16:19:33 -08:00

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# Growth Projection Template
## Key Formulas
### Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR)
```
MRR = (N_pro × $9.99) + (N_business × $29.99) + Monthly Commission Revenue
Monthly Commission Revenue = Sum of all booking commissions in month
```
### Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR)
```
ARR = MRR × 12
```
### Customer Lifetime Value (LTV)
```
LTV = ARPL × Average Customer Lifetime (months)
ARPL = (Subscription Revenue + Commission Revenue) / Total Active Landlords
Average Customer Lifetime = 1 / Monthly Churn Rate
```
### Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)
```
CAC = Total Marketing Spend / New Landlords Acquired
LTV:CAC Ratio target: > 3:1
```
### Average Booking Value (ABV)
```
ABV = Total Booking GMV / Number of Bookings
```
## Projection Model
### Assumptions
| Metric | Month 1 | Month 6 | Month 12 |
|--------|---------|---------|----------|
| Total Landlords | 50 | 300 | 1,000 |
| BASIC (%) | 80% | 60% | 50% |
| PRO (%) | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| BUSINESS (%) | 5% | 15% | 20% |
| Avg Bookings/Landlord/mo | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Avg Booking Value | $300 | $350 | $400 |
| Monthly Churn | 10% | 7% | 5% |
### Revenue Projections
| Revenue Stream | Month 1 | Month 6 | Month 12 |
|---------------|---------|---------|----------|
| **Subscriptions** | | | |
| PRO (N × $9.99) | $74.93 | $749.25 | $2,997.00 |
| BUSINESS (N × $29.99) | $74.98 | $1,349.55 | $5,998.00 |
| **Rental Commissions** | | | |
| BASIC (10%) | $2,400 | $18,900 | $80,000 |
| PRO (7%) | $315 | $3,675 | $33,600 |
| BUSINESS (5%) | $75 | $1,575 | $16,000 |
| **Total Monthly Revenue** | **$2,939.91** | **$26,248.80** | **$138,595.00** |
### Growth Metrics
```
Month-over-Month Growth = (MRR_current - MRR_previous) / MRR_previous × 100
Net Revenue Retention = (MRR from existing customers at end) / (MRR from same customers at start) × 100
Gross Margin = (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue × 100
COGS = Stripe fees + Hosting + Support
Target Gross Margin: > 70%
```
## Scenario Planning
### Conservative
- 30% MoM landlord growth
- 60% stay on BASIC
- ABV: $250
### Base
- 50% MoM landlord growth
- 50% upgrade to PRO/BUSINESS within 6 months
- ABV: $350
### Aggressive
- 80% MoM landlord growth
- 60% upgrade to PRO/BUSINESS within 3 months
- ABV: $500